Ekuqaleni kuka-Okthoba, amanani ensimbi athole ukwehla kwesikhashana, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthuthuka okulindelekile kwemingcele yesidingo kanye nokukhuthaza ukwenyuka kwamanani empahla yolwandle. Kodwa-ke, njengoba imishini yensimbi iqinisa imikhawulo yayo yokukhiqiza futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo, amazinga empahla yolwandle ehla kakhulu. Intengo yehle kakhulu phakathi nonyaka. Ngokuphathelene namanani aphelele, intengo yensimbi kulo nyaka yehle ngamaphesenti angaphezu kuka-50 kusukela endaweni ephezulu, futhi intengo isivele yehlile. Kodwa-ke, ngokombono wezisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo, uhlu lwamanje lwechweba lufinyelele ezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu esikhathini esifanayo eminyakeni emine edlule. Njengoba ichweba liqhubeka nokuqongelela, amanani ensimbi abuthakathaka alo nyaka azoba nzima ukuwashintsha.
Ukuthunyelwa kwezimayini ezijwayelekile kusalokhu kukhuphuka
Ngo-Okthoba, ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi e-Australia naseBrazil kwehle unyaka nonyaka kanye nenyanga nenyanga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kwakungenxa yokugcinwa kwezimayini. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla olwandle oluphezulu kuthinte ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi kwezinye izimayini ngezinga elithile. Kodwa-ke, ngokusho kokubalwa kwenhloso yonyaka wezimali, ukutholakala kwezimayini ezine ezinkulu kwikota yesine kuzoba nokwenyuka okuthile unyaka nonyaka kanye nenyanga nenyanga.
Umkhiqizo wensimbi eRio Tinto kwikota yesithathu wehle ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.6 unyaka nonyaka. Ngokusho komgomo wonyaka weRio Tinto wokunciphisa umkhawulo wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-320, umkhiqizo wekota yesine uzokhuphuka ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1 kusukela kwikota edlule, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.5. Umkhiqizo wensimbi e-BHP kwikota yesithathu wehle ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.5 unyaka nonyaka, kodwa wagcina umgomo wawo wonyaka wezimali wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-278-288 ungashintshi, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi uthuthuke kwikota yesine. I-FMG ithunyelwe kahle kumakota amathathu okuqala. Kwikota yesithathu, umkhiqizo ukhuphuke ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.4 unyaka nonyaka. Ngonyaka wezimali ka-2022 (Julayi 2021-Juni 2022), isiqondiso sokuthunyelwa kwensimbi sigcinwe ngaphakathi kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-180 kuya ku-185. Ukwanda okuncane kulindeleke futhi kwikota yesine. Ukukhiqizwa kweVale kwikota yesithathu kukhuphuke ngamathani angu-750,000 unyaka nonyaka. Ngokusho kokubalwa kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-325 unyaka wonke, ukukhiqizwa kwikota yesine kukhuphuke ngamathani ayizigidi ezimbili kusukela kwikota edlule, okuzokhuphuka ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-7 unyaka nonyaka. Ngokuvamile, umkhiqizo wensimbi yezimayini ezine ezinkulu kwikota yesine uzokhuphuka ngamathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-3 inyanga nenyanga kanye namathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-5 unyaka nonyaka. Nakuba amanani aphansi enomthelela othile ekuthunyelweni kwezimayini, izimayini ezivamile zisaqhubeka nenzuzo futhi kulindeleke ukuthi zifeze imigomo yazo yonyaka wonke ngaphandle kokunciphisa ngamabomu ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi yensimbi.
Ngokuphathelene nezimayini ezingezona ezivamile, kusukela engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ukungeniswa kwe-iron ore eShayina evela emazweni angezona ezivamile kwehle kakhulu unyaka nonyaka. Intengo ye-iron ore yehle, futhi umkhiqizo we-iron ore ethile ebiza kakhulu waqala ukwehla. Ngakho-ke kulindeleke ukuthi ukungeniswa kwezimayini ezingezona ezivamile kuqhubeke nokwehla unyaka nonyaka, kodwa umthelela ophelele ngeke ube mkhulu kakhulu.
Ngokuphathelene nezimayini zasekhaya, yize intshiseko yokukhiqiza kwezimayini zasekhaya nayo yehla, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi imikhawulo yokukhiqiza ngoSepthemba inamandla kakhulu, umkhiqizo wensimbi wanyanga zonke kwikota yesine ngokuyisisekelo ngeke ube ngaphansi kwalokho ngoSepthemba. Ngakho-ke, izimayini zasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale ziqinile kwikota yesine, ngokuncipha konyaka nonyaka okungaba ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-5.
Ngokuvamile, kube nokwanda kokuthunyelwa kwezimayini ezivamile kwikota yesine. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yezingulube zaphesheya kwezilwandle nakho kwehla inyanga nenyanga, isilinganiso sensimbi ethunyelwa eShayina kulindeleke ukuthi siphinde sibuye. Ngakho-ke, insimbi ethunyelwa eShayina izokhula unyaka nonyaka kanye nenyanga nenyanga. Izimayini ezingezona ezivamile nezimayini zasekhaya zingase zibe nokwehla okuthile unyaka nonyaka. Kodwa-ke, isikhala sokwehla kwenyanga nenyanga silinganiselwe. Inani eliphelele lokutholakala kwensimbi kwikota yesine lisakhula.
Isitokwe sechweba sigcinwa sisesimweni sokukhathala
Ukuqongelela kwensimbi emachwebeni engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kusobala kakhulu, okubonisa nokutholakala okukhululekile kanye nesidingo sensimbi. Kusukela ngo-Okthoba, izinga lokuqongelela liye lashesha futhi. Kusukela ngomhlaka-29 Okthoba, impahla yensimbi yechweba ikhuphuke yafika kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-145, inani eliphakeme kakhulu esikhathini esifanayo eminyakeni emine edlule. Ngokusho kokubalwa kwedatha yokuhlinzekwa, impahla yechweba ingafinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-155 ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, futhi ingcindezi izoba nkulu nakakhulu ngaleso sikhathi.
Ukusekelwa kwezindleko kuqala ukuncipha
Ekuqaleni kuka-Okthoba, kwaba nokwehla okuncane emakethe yensimbi, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yomthelela wokwenyuka kwamanani empahla yolwandle. Ngaleso sikhathi, impahla ye-C3 esuka eTubarao, eBrazil iya eQingdao, eShayina yayiseduze ne-US$50/ton, kodwa kube nokwehla okukhulu muva nje. Impahla yehle yafika ku-US$24/ton ngoNovemba 3, kanti impahla yolwandle esuka eNtshonalanga Australia iya eShayina yayingama-US$12 kuphela. /Ton. Izindleko zensimbi ezimayini ezivamile zingaphansi kwe-US$30/ton. Ngakho-ke, yize intengo yensimbi yehle kakhulu, imayini isazuza, futhi ukwesekwa kwezindleko kuzoba buthaka kakhulu.
Sekukonke, yize intengo yensimbi iphansi kakhulu phakathi nonyaka, kusenendawo engezansi ukuthi ngabe ivela ngokombono wezisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo noma ohlangothini lwezindleko. Kulindeleke ukuthi isimo esibuthakathaka sizohlala singashintshi kulo nyaka. Kodwa-ke, kulindeleke ukuthi intengo yediski ye-iron ore futures ingaba nokusekelwa okuthile okuseduze nama-yuan angu-500/ton, ngoba intengo yesikhala sempuphu ekhethekile ehambisana nentengo yediski engama-yuan angu-500/ton iseduze nama-yuan angu-320/ton, okuseduze nezinga eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni engu-4. Lokhu kuzoba nokusekelwa okuthile ngezindleko. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngaphansi kwesizinda sokuthi inzuzo ngethani lediski yensimbi isephezulu, kungase kube nemali yokunciphisa isilinganiso se-snail ore, esisekela ngokungaqondile intengo yensimbi.