Ekuqaleni kuka-Okthoba, amanani entengo yensimbi athole ukuphinda abophe okwesikhathi esifushane, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthuthukiswa okulindelekile kumkhawulo wokufunwa kanye nokukhuthaza ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo yempahla yasolwandle.Nokho, njengoba izigayo zensimbi zaziqinisa imingcele yazo yokukhiqiza futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinga lokuthutha olwandle lehla kakhulu.Intengo yehle kakhulu phakathi nonyaka.Ngokwezintengo eziphelele, intengo yensimbi kulo nyaka yehle ngaphezu kuka-50% ukusuka endaweni ephakeme, futhi intengo isivele iwile.Kodwa-ke, ngokombono wokuphakelwa nokufunwa okuyisisekelo, uhlu lwamanje lwetheku lufinyelele izinga eliphezulu kakhulu esikhathini esifanayo eminyakeni emine edlule.Njengoba ichweba liqhubeka liqongelela , Izintengo zensimbi ezibuthakathaka zalo nyaka kuzoba nzima ukuzishintsha.
Ukuthunyelwa kwezimayini ezivamile kusenokwenyuka
Ngo-Okthoba, ukuthunyelwa kwe-iron ore e-Australia naseBrazil kwehle unyaka nonyaka kanye nenyanga nenyanga.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kwakungenxa yesondlo semayini.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuthutha olwandle oluphakeme kuye kwaphazamisa ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi kwezinye izimayini ngezinga elithile.Kodwa-ke, ngokwezibalo ezihlosiwe zonyaka wezimali, ukunikezwa kwezimayini ezinkulu ezine kwikota yesine kuzoba nokwenyuka okuthile unyaka nonyaka kanye nenyanga nenyanga.
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-iron ore ye-Rio Tinto engxenyeni yesithathu yehle ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-2.6 unyaka nonyaka.Ngokomgomo weRio Tinto wonyaka ophansi wesilinganiso esiphansi samathani ayizigidi ezingama-320, ikota yesine izokhuphuka ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1 ukusuka kwikota edlule, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.5.Ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yensimbi ye-BHP ngekota yesithathu kwehle ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.5 unyaka nonyaka, kodwa igcine umgomo wayo wonyaka wezimali wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-278-288 ingashintshiwe, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngcono ngekota yesine.I-FMG ihanjiswe kahle kumakota amathathu okuqala.Ngekota yesithathu, umkhiqizo ukhuphuke ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-2.4 unyaka nonyaka.Ngonyaka wezimali ka-2022 (Julayi 2021-Juni 2022), isiqondiso sokuthunyelwa kwe-iron ore sagcinwa phakathi kwebanga lamathani ayizigidi ezingu-180 kuya kwezingu-185.Kulindeleke nokwenyuka okuncane ngekota yesine.Ukukhiqizwa kukaVale engxenyeni yesithathu kukhuphuke ngamathani angu-750,000 unyaka nonyaka.Ngokwezibalo zamathani ayizigidi ezingama-325 unyaka wonke, ukukhiqizwa kwekota yesine kukhuphuke ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-2 ukusuka kwikota edlule, okuzokwenyuka ngamathani ayizigidi eziyisi-7 unyaka nonyaka.Sekukonke, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi ezimayini ezinkulu ezine kwikota yesine kuzokwenyuka ngamathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezi-3 inyanga nenyanga kanye namathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezi-5 unyaka nonyaka.Nakuba amanani aphansi enomthelela othile ekuthunyelweni kwezimayini, izimayini ezivamile zisalokhu zinenzuzo futhi kulindeleke ukuthi zifinyelele imigomo yazo yonyaka wonke ngaphandle kokunciphisa ngamabomu ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi.
Mayelana nezimayini ezingezona ezejwayelekile, kusukela engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ukuthengwa kwensimbi yaseShayina evela emazweni angajwayelekile kuye kwehle kakhulu unyaka nonyaka.Intengo yensimbi yehla, futhi umkhiqizo wensimbi ebiza kakhulu waqala ukwehla.Ngakho-ke kulindeleke ukuthi ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwezimbiwa ezingajwayelekile kuqhubeke nokwehla unyaka nonyaka, kodwa umthelela usuwonke ngeke ube mkhulu kakhulu.
Ngokuphathelene nezimayini zasekhaya, nakuba umdlandla wokukhiqiza wezimayini zasekhaya nawo uyancipha, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi imingcele yokukhiqiza ngo-September inamandla kakhulu, ukukhishwa kwe-iron ore yanyanga zonke engxenyeni yesine ngokuyisisekelo ngeke kube ngaphansi kwalokho ngo-September.Ngakho-ke, izimayini zasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale ziphansi ngekota yesine, ngokuncipha konyaka nonyaka ngamathani alinganiselwa ezigidini ezi-5.
Sekukonke, kube nokwenyuka kokuthunyelwa kwezimayini ezijwayelekile engxenyeni yesine.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yezingulube phesheya kwezilwandle nakho kwehla inyanga nenyanga, ingxenye yensimbi ethunyelwa eChina kulindeleke ukuthi iphinde ibuyele emuva.Ngakho-ke, insimbi ethunyelwa eChina izokhula unyaka nonyaka kanye nenyanga nenyanga.Izimayini okungezona ezejwayelekile kanye nezimayini zasekhaya zingase zibe nokuncipha okuthile unyaka nonyaka.Kodwa-ke, igumbi lokuncipha kwenyanga nenyanga lilinganiselwe.Isamba sokutholakala kwekota yesine sisakhula.
I-inventory yasechwebeni igcinwa esimweni sokukhathala
Ukuqoqwa kwensimbi emachwebeni engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kusobala kakhulu, okubonisa nokutholakala okuxekethile nokufunwa kwensimbi.Kusukela ngo-Okthoba, izinga lokuqongelela liye lenyuka futhi.Kusukela ngomhla zingama-29 kuMfumfu, ukufakwa kwe-iron ore echwebeni kukhuphuke kwafinyelela kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-145, inani eliphakeme kakhulu esikhathini esifanayo eminyakeni emine edlule.Ngokusho kokubalwa kwedatha yokuhlinzeka, i-inventory yechweba ingase ifinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-155 ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, futhi ingcindezi ekhona izobe inkulu nakakhulu ngaleso sikhathi.
Ukusekelwa kohlangothi lwezindleko kuqala ukuba buthaka
Ekuqaleni kuka-Okthoba, kwaba nokuphindeka kancane emakethe yensimbi, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yomthelela wokukhuphuka kwezintengo zempahla yasolwandle.Ngaleso sikhathi, impahla ye-C3 esuka e-Tubarao, eBrazil iya e-Qingdao, e-China yake yasondela ku-US$50/ton, kodwa kube nokwehla okukhulu muva nje.Impahla yehle yafinyelela ku-$24/ton ngoNovemba 3, kanti impahla yasolwandle esuka eNtshonalanga Australia iya eChina yayingama-US$12 kuphela./Ithani.Izindleko zensimbi ezimayini ezivamile zingaphansi kwe-US$30/ton.Ngakho-ke, nakuba intengo ye-iron ore yehle kakhulu, imayini isenayo inzuzo, futhi ukusekelwa kwezindleko kuzoba buthakathaka.
Sekukonke, nakuba intengo yensimbi yehle kakhulu phakathi nonyaka, kusenendawo engezansi ukuthi isuka kumbono wokuphakelwa nokufunwa okuyisisekelo noma ohlangothini lwezindleko.Kulindeleke ukuthi isimo esintekenteke sihlale singashintshile kulo nyaka.Kodwa-ke, kulindeleke ukuthi inani lediski le-iron ore ikusasa lingase libe nokusekelwa okuthile eduze kwama-yuan angu-500/ton, ngenxa yokuthi intengo yendawo yempushana ekhethekile kakhulu ehambisana nenani lediski elingu-500 yuan/ton iseduze no-320 yuan/ton, okuyinani elilinganayo. eduze nezinga eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni emi-4.Lokhu kuzophinde kube nokusekelwa okuthile ezindlekweni.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngaphansi kwesizinda sokuthi inzuzo ngethoni ngayinye yediski yensimbi isephezulu, kungase kube khona izimali zokunciphisa isilinganiso se-minenke ye-ore, esekela ngokungaqondile intengo yensimbi.