Uma ngibheka emuva ngo-2024, isidingo sasekhaya sasibuthakathaka, ukunikezwa kwaqhubeka nokuba namandla aphezulu, kanti intengo yamanje yensimbi yayingaphansi kwengcindezi yokwehla ngaphansi kwephethini yokunikezwa nokufunwa okuxekethile. Izinqubomgomo zasekhaya nezakwamanye amazwe zanikeza amandla ashukumisayo akhuphuka kancane kancane.
Ukubuyekezwa Kwezindlela Zentengo Yezimbiwa Ngo-2024
Umkhuba jikelele wamanani ensimbi ngo-2024 ungahlukaniswa ngezigaba ezine.
Isigaba I: Kwikota yokuqala ka-2024, okulindelwe okuhle kwezinqubomgomo zasekhaya kwagcwaliseka, ukuhlolwa kwesistimu emnyama kwehle, ifasitela lokunciphisa izinga lenzalo le-Federal Reserve lahlehliswa ngokuphindaphindiwe, imigomo ye-National Two Sessions yayihambisana nokulindelwe, izinga lokukhula okuhlosiwe le-GDP (umkhiqizo wasekhaya ophelele), izinga lokuntuleka okuhlosiwe, kanye nebhondi ekhethekile ye-yuan eyi-trillion eyi-1 akuzange kudlule okulindelwe emakethe, isidingo sokugcina sasibuthakathaka, ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo sasekhaya se-iron ore kwakungaphansi kwalokho obekulindelwe, kuhlanganiswe nokwanda okukhulu konyaka nonyaka kokuthunyelwa kwe-ore kwamanye amazwe, umkhiqizo we-ore yasekhaya wakhula ngaphezu kwesizini, kanti ukuhlolwa kwe-iron ore kwakuphezulu kakhulu. Ngaphansi komqondo ongemuhle wempendulo, intengo ye-iron ore yehla ngokushesha futhi ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe.
Isigaba sesibili: kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli 2024 kuya ekupheleni kukaMeyi 2024, imboni "impendulo enhle", isilinganiso sokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo sithuthukile, inani lentengo yochungechunge olumnyama kwikota yokuqala lehle kakhulu, okulindelwe ukwehla kwamandla emali kwamazwe ngamazwe kwaqala ukukhuphuka ngo-Ephreli, isidingo sendawo yokugcina impahla yasekhaya sabuya futhi sasiphezulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, ngaphansi kwebhalansi entsha yokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo sensimbi, inzuzo yesikhashana yamabhizinisi ensimbi yaphinde yanda kakhulu, isidingo sasekhaya saqhubeka nokukhuphuka, ukuhlinzekwa kwezimayini zaphesheya kwezwe kwehle inyanga nenyanga, isilinganiso sokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo sensimbi sithuthukile, kuhlanganiswe nenqubomgomo entsha yezindlu "yangoMeyi 17", isikhuthazo senqubomgomo yokukhulisa izibopho zesikhathi eside, intengo yamanje yensimbi ifinyelele esigabeni esisha phezulu.
Isigaba Sesithathu: Kusukela ngoMeyi 23, 2024 kuya kuSepthemba 23, 2024, i-iron ore ibonise iphethini yokuphakelwa okunamandla kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka. Ngesikhathi sesikhathi senqubomgomo enkulu, ukuthengiselana kwemakethe kubonise iqiniso elibuthakathaka, kanti intengo yamanje ye-iron ore yaphakama futhi yehla okwesikhashana. Ngokusetshenziswa kwezinqubomgomo zezindlu ezinhle ngasekupheleni kukaMeyi kanye nokulindela kwemingcele yesidingo esibuthakathaka okubangelwa yizinqubomgomo zensimbi eluhlaza, intengo yamanje ye-iron ore iyaqhubeka nokwehla. Ngokukhishwa kwemithetho eningiliziwe yokulungisa izinqubomgomo zezindlu emadolobheni amaningi ezweni lonke, kanye nokukhishwa kwe-"2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" ngoMeyi 30, ukusetshenziswa okuqinile kokufakwa esikhundleni kwamandla okukhiqiza insimbi, kanye nokulawulwa okuqhubekayo kokukhiqizwa kwensimbi eluhlaza ngo-2024, ukulindela kwemakethe ukwehla okuncane kwesidingo se-iron ore kuqalile ukuvunda. Kusukela maphakathi noJulayi kuya ku-Agasti 19, uphenyo "lokukhokha kokuthumela ngaphandle" kanye nezinqubomgomo zamazwe amaningi zokulwa nokulahla insimbi ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kucindezele inani lochungechunge olumnyama. Abahwebi bagxile ekuthengiseni i-rebar endala ejwayelekile, okwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukuthembela emakethe. Inzuzo yezinkampani zensimbi yehle ngokushesha, izimayini zaphesheya kwezilwandle zihlale zitholakala kakhulu, amazinga okugcina impahla emachwebeni aqhubeke nokukhuphuka, futhi amanani ensimbi aqhubeke nokwehla kwaze kwaba nguSepthemba 23.
Isigaba 4: Ukulindela okukhulayo kwe-Macro kuqina kakhulu, isidingo sasekhaya sisekela amanani, ukulindela kwenqubomgomo yasekhaya neyangaphandle kuyazwakala, futhi amaqembu amnyama athola ukubuya okukhulu. Ngomhlaka-19 Septhemba, i-Federal Reserve yanciphisa amazinga enzalo ngamaphuzu angama-50 okuqala umjikelezo wokunciphisa inzalo, kanti umnotho waphesheya kwezilwandle wagcina ukuqina; Ngomhlaka-24 Septhemba, i-People's Bank of China, i-State Administration for Financial Regulation, kanye ne-China Securities Regulatory Commission babambe ingqungquthela yabezindaba ukuze baqalise uchungechunge lwezinqubomgomo zokukhuthaza. Inqubomgomo yezimali yayinamandla ngokwenyuka, "ngemicibisholo emithathu" yokunciphisa isilinganiso semfuneko yokugcina, ukunciphisa inzalo, kanye nokunciphisa inzalo yemali mboleko yezindlu ekhona. Izinqubomgomo zahlangabezana nokulindelekile futhi zadlula okulindelwe, kanye nokulindela kokugcwalisa kabusha i-iron ore ngaphambi kweholide likaSuku Lukazwelonke kanye nokubuyela emuva kwesidingo sokugcina ngemuva kweholide, okwaholela ekukhuphukeni okuhlangene kwezimpahla zasekhaya. Ngokuqashelwa okugxilile kwethemba elikhulu ngomhlaka-8 Okthoba, amanani ochungechunge olumnyama afinyelela esicongweni sesikhashana, futhi inzuzo yezitofu zokuqhuma zasekhaya yayinkulu kakhulu, okwagcina izinga elithile lokuqina kwesidingo se-iron ore. Ngokuhambisana nokwehla kokutholakala kwezimbiwa kwamanye amazwe kwikota yesine, ibhalansi yokutholakala kwezimbiwa zensimbi kanye nesidingo yayiqinile okwesikhashana, okusekela amanani ukuthi ahlale ephezulu.
Umbono wendlela yokuthambekela kwemakethe ye-iron ore ngo-2025
Umbhali ukholelwa ukuthi iphethini yokutholakala okunamandla kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka sensimbi ngo-2025 kunzima ukuyishintsha, futhi isikhungo sentengo sizoqhubeka nokwehla.
Ngokuphathelene nokuhlinzekwa, ukwanda komhlaba wonke kokuhlinzekwa kwe-iron ore ngo-2025 kuzoba cishe ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-69 (uma amanani ehlala engaphezu kuka-$100/ton). Ngokusekelwe ezilinganisweni zokuthunyelwa, ukwanda okuphelele kokuhlinzekwa kwe-iron ore yasekhaya ngo-2025 kulinganiselwa ukuthi kungaba ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-46.9, kufaka phakathi amathani ayizigidi ezingu-21.65 avela ezimayini ezinkulu, amathani ayizigidi ezingu-15.25 avela ezimayini ezingezona ezinkulu, kanye namathani ayizigidi ezingu-10 avela ezimayini zasekhaya.
Ngokuphathelene nesidingo, isidingo sensimbi yangaphandle sizoqhubeka nokwehla ngo-2025. Ngokukhula okusheshayo kwezimboni zokukhiqiza kanye nezimboni ezisafufusa eShayina, insimbi yezimboni ikhombisa ukuthambekela kokukhula okuphezulu, okukhulu, kanye nokwezinga eliphezulu. Njengamanje, isimo sokufunwa singcono kunemakethe yezindlu, futhi amaphuzu amakhulu okudonsela phansi kanye nengozi asekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe kwezimboni zezindlu nezokukhiqiza. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi isidingo sasekhaya sensimbi yensimbi singase sehle cishe ngo-1% ngo-2025.
Ngokuphathelene nentengo, ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo se-iron ore kuzoqhubeka nokuxega ngo-2025, kanti isikhungo sentengo sizoqhubeka sehla siye ku-$100/ton, kanye nobubanzi bokushintshashintsha obungu-$85/ton kuya ku-$115/ton. Ukwanda kwenqubomgomo enkulu engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka kwakugxile kakhulu, kanti ukwanda kokunikezwa kwakukhulu engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. Umkhuba wentengo iyonke uvame ukuba phezulu ngaphambili naphansi ngemuva, futhi umehluko wentengo phakathi kwezinyanga ze-iron ore kanye nezimakethe zasekhaya nezangaphandle ungase ucindezelwe kakhulu. Uma intengo isondela onqenqemeni oluphansi, izoba nomthelela omkhulu kumaminerali akhiqizwa ngaphakathi nangaphandle anezindleko zokukhiqiza eziphezulu, futhi kuzoba namandla aphezulu okushayela amanani.
Ngamafuphi, umbhali uphakamisa ukusebenza ngaphakathi kobubanzi obuthile, ikakhulukazi kumabhizinisi okukhiqiza anenani elikhulu lama-oda entengo evaliwe, ukwandisa izikhundla zawo zokuvikela izinto zokusetshenziswa ebangeni eliphansi futhi kuvinjwe inzuzo yokukhiqiza.