Kusukela maphakathi no-Okthoba, ngenxa yokwehla okusobala kokulinganiswa kwamandla embonini kanye nokubuyiselwa okuqhubekayo kohlangothi lokunikezwa, intengo yekusasa le-ferroalloy iqhubekile nokwehla, lapho intengo ephansi kakhulu ye-ferrosilicon yehla yaya ku-9,930 yuan/ton, kanye nentengo ephansi kakhulu ye-silicomanganese ku-8,800 yuan/ton. Ngokwesimo sokubuyiselwa kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo esizinzile, sikholelwa ukuthi ama-ferroalloy asazoqhubeka nokwehla, kodwa ukuthambekela phansi kanye nesikhala kuzoncika ezinguqukweni entengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezisuselwe ku-carbon ekugcineni kwezindleko.
Ukunikezwa kuyaqhubeka nokukhula
Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, izitshalo eziningi ze-ferrosilicon eZhongwei, eNingxia zikhiphe izicelo zokucima kukagesi kwezitofu ze-arc ezingaphansi kwamanzi. Kodwa-ke, isitshalo sikagesi senkampani ye-alloy eGuizhou asinawo amalahle okuthenga, okubonisa ukuthi singase simise ukukhiqizwa. Ukuphazamiseka kokuntuleka kukagesi ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka kuye kwenzeka ngezikhathi ezithile, kodwa ukuvikelwa kokuhlinzekwa kwamalahle okushisa kube nemiphumela emikhulu, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-ferroalloy kuyaqhubeka nokukhula. Njengamanje, umkhiqizo we-ferrosilicon emabhizinisini esampula ungamathani angu-87,000, ukwanda kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-4 kusukela ngesonto eledlule; izinga lokusebenza lingu-37.26%, ukwanda kwamaphuzu angu-1.83 kusukela ngesonto eledlule. Ukuhlinzekwa kuphinde kwanda amasonto amabili alandelanayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umkhiqizo we-silico-manganese emabhizinisini esampula wawungamathani angu-153,700, ukwanda kwamathani angu-1,600 kusukela ngesonto eledlule; izinga lokusebenza lalingu-52.56%, ukwanda kwamaphuzu angu-1.33 kusukela ngesonto eledlule. Ukutholakala kwe-silicomanganese kukhuphuke amasonto amahlanu alandelanayo.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi kukhuphukile. Idatha yakamuva ikhombisa ukuthi umkhiqizo kazwelonke wemikhiqizo emihlanu emikhulu yensimbi wawungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-9.219, ukubuya okuncane kusukela ngesonto eledlule, kanti isilinganiso somkhiqizo wensimbi eluhlaza nsuku zonke naso sibuye sabuya kancane. Ezigabeni ezintathu zokuqala zalo nyaka, umkhiqizo wensimbi eluhlaza yasekhaya ukhuphuke ngamathani angaba yizigidi ezingu-16 uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, okusekude kakhulu nomgomo wokunciphisa umkhiqizo obekwe yi-Ministry of Industry and Information Technology embonini yensimbi. Ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi eluhlaza akunakwenzeka ukuthi kukhuphuke kakhulu ngoNovemba, futhi isidingo esiphelele sama-ferroalloy kulindeleke ukuthi sibe buthaka.
Ngemva kokuba intengo yesikhathi esizayo se-ferroalloy yehle kakhulu, inani lamarisidi e-warehouse lehle kakhulu. Izaphulelo ezinkulu kudiski, intshiseko ekhulayo yokuguqulwa kwamarisidi e-warehouse ukuze abonakale, ngaphezu kwalokho, inzuzo esobala nengabizi kakhulu yamanani amaphuzu, konke kube negalelo ekwehleni okukhulu kwenani lamarisidi e-warehouse. Ngokombono we-inventory yenkampani, i-silicomanganese inventory yehle kancane, okubonisa ukuthi ukunikezwa kuncane kancane.
Uma sibheka isimo sokuqashwa kwensimbi kaHegang ngo-Okthoba, intengo ye-ferrosilicon ingu-16,000 yuan/ton kanti intengo ye-silicomanganese ingu-12,800 yuan/ton. Intengo yezindleko zensimbi iphakeme kakhulu kunentengo yesikhathi esizayo yesonto eledlule. Ingathinta kabi intengo ye-ferroalloys.
Ukusekelwa kwezindleko kusesekhona
Ngemva kokuba intengo ye-ferroalloy futures yehle kakhulu, yathola ukwesekwa eduze kwezindleko eziqondile. Ngokombono wezindleko zakamuva zokukhiqiza, i-ferrosilicon iku-9,800 yuan/ton, ukwehla kwama-yuan angu-200/ton kusukela esikhathini esidlule, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwehla kwentengo ye-blue carbon. Njengamanje, intengo yamalahle aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka ingu-3,000 yuan/ton, kanti intengo ye-coke futures yehle kakhulu yaya cishe kuma-yuan angu-3,000/ton. Ukwehla kwentengo yamalahle aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka esikhathini esizayo kuyingozi enkulu yokwehla kwezindleko ze-ferrosilicon. Uma izinga lokukhuphuka kwamalahle aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka lehla, intengo yamalahle aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka izokwehla iye cishe kuma-yuan angu-2,000/ton, kanti izindleko ezifanayo ze-ferrosilicon zizoba cishe ngama-yuan angu-8,600/ton. Uma sibheka ukusebenza kwamuva kwemakethe ye-blue carbon, kube nokwehla okukhulu kwezinye izindawo. Ngokufanayo, izindleko ze-silicomanganese zingama-yuan angu-8500/ton. Uma intengo ye-coke yesibili yensimbi encibilikayo yehla ngo-1,000 yuan/ton, intengo ye-silicomanganese izokwehliswa iye ku-7800 yuan/ton. Esikhathini esifushane, ukwesekwa kwezindleko ezimile okungu-9,800 yuan/ton ye-ferrosilicon kanye no-8,500 yuan/ton ye-silicomanganese kusasebenza, kodwa esikhathini esiphakathi, amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa eziluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka kanye ne-coke yesibili yensimbi encibilikayo asenezingozi ezimbi, ezingaholela ezindleleni ze-ferroalloys. Yehla kancane kancane.
Gxila ekulungiseni okuyisisekelo
Isisekelo senkontileka ye-ferrosilicon 2201 singama-yuan ayi-1,700/ton, kanti isisekelo senkontileka ye-silico-manganese 2201 singama-yuan ayi-1,500/ton. Isaphulelo sediski sisabalulekile. Isaphulelo esikhulu kudiski ye-futures singenye yezinto ezisekela ukubuya kwediski. Kodwa-ke, umuzwa wamanje wemakethe ye-spot awuzinzile futhi umfutho wokubuya kwe-futures awanele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa yokwehla kwezindleko zokukhiqiza i-spot, kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi isisekelo sizolungiswa ngendlela yokwehla kwe-spot okuhlangabezana ne-futures.
Sekukonke, sikholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwenkontileka ka-2201 akukashintshi. Kunconywa ukuthi ungaphumeleli emihlanganweni futhi unake ingcindezi eseduze ne-ferrosilicon engu-11500-12000 yuan/ton, i-silicomanganese engu-9800-10300 yuan/ton, kanye ne-ferrosilicon engu-8000-8600 yuan/ton. Amathani kanye ne-silicomanganese engu-7500-7800 yuan/ton ukwesekwa okuseduze.